Tag: Risk Analysis

Management Notes

Capital Budgeting Techniques: Discounted and Non-Discounted

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Capital budgeting is a process that companies use to evaluate and select long-term investment opportunities that will help achieve their financial objectives. The process involves analyzing and comparing potential investments based on their expected cash flows, risks, and returns.

The following are the steps involved in capital budgeting:

  • Identify Potential Projects: The first step in capital budgeting is to identify potential projects that can create long-term value for the company. This can include projects related to expanding the business, acquiring new assets, or investing in new products or services.
  • Estimate Cash Flows: The next step is to estimate the expected cash flows from each potential project. This includes identifying the initial investment required, the expected operating cash flows over the project’s life, and any salvage value that can be recovered at the end of the project.
  • Evaluate Risks: The third step is to evaluate the risks associated with each potential project. This involves analyzing the uncertainty of the cash flows and identifying potential risks that could impact the project’s success.
  • Determine Cost of Capital: The cost of capital is the required rate of return that investors expect to receive from an investment. It is the minimum return required to compensate investors for the time value of money and the risks associated with the investment.
  • Analyze Investment Opportunities: Once the cash flows, risks, and cost of capital are estimated, the potential projects can be analyzed and compared. This involves using various financial metrics such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period to determine which project is the most financially viable.
  • Select the Best Investment: Based on the analysis, the company can select the best investment opportunity that maximizes shareholder value and aligns with the company’s financial objectives.
  • Monitor and Review: After selecting an investment, it is essential to monitor and review its progress regularly. This involves comparing actual cash flows to the estimated cash flows and identifying any deviations from the original projections. If necessary, corrective action can be taken to ensure that the investment remains financially viable.

There are two main categories of capital budgeting techniques: discounted and non-discounted.

Discounted Cash Flow Techniques

1. Net Present Value (NPV)

NPV is the most popular and widely used discounted cash flow technique. It calculates the present value of future cash flows and compares them to the initial investment. If the NPV is positive, it indicates that the investment is expected to generate positive returns and create value for the company.

For example, a company is considering investing in a new project that requires an initial investment of $100,000. The project is expected to generate cash flows of $30,000 per year for the next five years. The company’s cost of capital is 10%. The NPV of the project can be calculated as follows:

NPV = PV(Cash inflows) – PV(Initial investment)

PV(Cash inflows) = [($30,000 / 1.1) + ($30,000 / 1.1^2) + ($30,000 / 1.1^3) + ($30,000 / 1.1^4) + ($30,000 / 1.1^5)] = $112,824

PV(Initial investment) = $100,000

NPV = $112,824 – $100,000 = $12,824

Since the NPV is positive, the company should invest in the project.

2. Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

IRR is the discount rate that makes the NPV of the project equal to zero. It is a measure of the project’s profitability and is used to compare investment opportunities. If the IRR is greater than the cost of capital, the investment is considered acceptable.

For example, using the same investment opportunity above, the IRR of the project can be calculated as follows:

NPV = 0 = [($30,000 / (1 + IRR)) + ($30,000 / (1 + IRR)^2) + ($30,000 / (1 + IRR)^3) + ($30,000 / (1 + IRR)^4) + ($30,000 / (1 + IRR)^5)] – $100,000

The IRR of the project is 16.14%, which is greater than the cost of capital (10%). Therefore, the company should invest in the project.

Non-Discounted Cash Flow Techniques

1. Payback Period

Payback period is the amount of time it takes to recover the initial investment in a project. It does not consider the time value of money, and it is easy to calculate.

For example, a company is considering investing in a project that requires an initial investment of $100,000. The project is expected to generate cash flows of $30,000 per year. The payback period of the project can be calculated as follows:

Payback Period = Initial Investment / Annual Cash Flows

Payback Period = $100,000 / $30,000 = 3.33 years

Therefore, the payback period of the project is 3.33 years.

2. Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)

The accounting rate of return is a measure of the profitability of an investment based on accounting profits. It is calculated by dividing the average annual accounting profit by the initial investment. The higher the ARR, the better the investment.

ARR = Average Annual Accounting Profit / Initial Investment

For example, if an investment requires an initial investment of $100,000 and generates an average annual accounting profit of $20,000, the ARR would be:

ARR = $20,000 / $100,000 = 20%

This means that the investment is expected to generate a 20% return on investment based on accounting profits. However, this method does not take into account the time value of money and may not reflect the true profitability of an investment.

Lucknow University BBA Notes

Managerial Economics LU BBA 2nd Semester NEP Notes

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Unit 1
Nature and Scope of Managerial Economics VIEW
Opportunity Cost principle VIEW
Incremental principle VIEW
Equi-Marginal Principle VIEW
Principle of Time perspective VIEW
Discounting Principle VIEW
Uses of Managerial Economics VIEW VIEW
Demand Analysis VIEW
Demand Theory, The concepts of Demand VIEW
Determinants of Demand VIEW
Demand Function VIEW
Elasticity of Demand and its uses in Business decisions VIEW
**Measuring Elasticity of Demand VIEW
Unit 2
Production Analysis: Concept of Production, Factors VIEW
Laws of Production VIEW
Economies of Scale VIEW
**Return to Scale VIEW
Economies of Scope VIEW
Production functions VIEW
Cost Analysis: Cost Concept, Types of Costs VIEW
Cost function and Cost curves VIEW
Costs in Short and Long run VIEW
LAC VIEW
Learning Curve VIEW
Unit 3
Market Analysis/ Structure VIEW
Price-output determination in Different markets, Perfect competition, Monopoly VIEW
Price discrimination under Monopoly, Monopolistic competition VIEW
Duopoly Markets VIEW
Oligopoly Markets VIEW
Different pricing policies VIEW
Unit 4
Introduction to Macro Economics VIEW
National Income Aggregates VIEW VIEW
Concept of Inflation- Inter- Sectoral Linkages:
Macro Aggregates and Policy Interrelationships
Tools of Fiscal Policies VIEW VIEW
Tools of Monetary Policies VIEW
Profit Analysis: Nature and Management of Profit, Function of Profits VIEW
Profit Theories VIEW
Profit policies VIEW
Management Notes

Simple Average or Price Relative Method, Weighted index method

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Simple Average or Price Relatives Method

In this method, we find out the price relative of individual items and average out the individual values. Price relative refers to the percentage ratio of the value of a variable in the current year to its value in the year chosen as the base.

Price relative (R) = (P1÷P2) × 100

Here, P1= Current year value of item with respect to the variable and P2= Base year value of the item with respect to the variable. Effectively, the formula for index number according to this method is:

 P = ∑[(P1÷P2) × 100] ÷N

Here, N= Number of goods and P= Index number.

Weighted index method

Weighted Aggregate Method

Here different goods are assigned weight according to the quantity bought. There are three well-known sub-methods based on the different views of economists as mentioned below:

Laspeyre’s Method

Laspeyre was of the view that base year quantities must be chosen as weights. Therefore the formula is :

P = (∑P1Q0÷∑P0Q0)×100

Here,  ∑P1Q0= Summation of prices of current year multiplied by quantities of the base year taken as weights and ∑P0Q0= Summation of, prices of base year multiplied by quantities of the base year taken as weights.

Paasche Index Number

The Paasche Price Index is a consumer price index used to measure the change in the price and quantity of a basket of goods and services relative to a base year price and observation year quantity. Developed by German economist Hermann Paasche, the Paasche Price Index is commonly referred to as the “current weighted index.”

Formula for the Paasche Price Index

The formula for the index is as follows:

Where:

  • Pi,0 is the price of the individual item at the base period and Pi,t is the price of the individual item at the observation period.
  • Qi,t is the quantity of the individual item at the observation period.

Marshall Edgeworth Index Number

Management Notes

Skewness

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Skewness, in statistics, is the degree of distortion from the symmetrical bell curve, or normal distribution, in a set of data. Skewness can be negative, positive, zero or undefined. A normal distribution has a skew of zero, while a lognormal distribution, for example, would exhibit some degree of right-skew.

The three probability distributions depicted below depict increasing levels of right (or positive) skewness. Distributions can also be left (negative) skewed. Skewness is used along with kurtosis to better judge the likelihood of events falling in the tails of a probability distribution.

Right skewness

  • Skewness, in statistics, is the degree of distortion from the symmetrical bell curve in a probability distribution.
  • Distributions can exhibit right (positive) skewness or left (negative) skewness to varying degree.
  • Investors note skewness when judging a return distribution because it, like kurtosis, considers the extremes of the data set rather than focusing solely on the average.

Broadly speaking, there are two types of skewness: They are

(1) Positive skewness

(2) Negative skewnes.

Positive skewness

A series is said to have positive skewness when the following characteristics are noticed:

  • Mean > Median > Mode.
  • The right tail of the curve is longer than its left tail, when the data are plotted through a histogram, or a frequency polygon.
  • The formula of Skewness and its coefficient give positive figures.

Negative Skewness

A series is said to have negative skewness when the following characteristics are noticed:

  • Mode> Median > Mode.
  • The left tail of the curve is longer than the right tail, when the data are plotted through a histogram, or a frequency polygon.
  • The formula of skewness and its coefficient give negative figures.

Thus, a statistical distribution may be three types viz.

  • Symmetric
  • Positively skewed
  • Negatively skewed

Skewness Co-efficient

  1. Pearson’s Coefficient of Skewness #1 uses the mode. The formula is:

    pearson skewness

    Where xbar = the mean, Mo = the mode and s = the standard deviation for the sample.

  2. Pearson’s Coefficient of Skewness #2 uses the median. The formula is:

    Pearson's Coefficient of Skewness

    Where xbar = the mean, Mo = the mode and s = the standard deviation for the sample.

    It is generally used when you don’t know the mode.

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