Year: 2020

Data transmission refers to the process of transferring data between two or more digital devices. Data is transmitted from one device to another in analog or digital format. Basically, data transmission enables devices or components within devices to speak to each other.

How does data transmission work between digital devices?

Data is transferred in the form of bits between two or more digital devices. There are two methods used to transmit data between digital devices: serial transmission and parallel transmission. Serial data transmission sends data bits one after another over a single channel. Parallel data transmission sends multiple data bits at the same time over multiple channels.

Serial transmission

When data is sent or received using serial data transmission, the data bits are organized in a specific order, since they can only be sent one after another. The order of the data bits is important as it dictates how the transmission is organized when it is received. It is viewed as a reliable data transmission method because a data bit is only sent if the previous data bit has already been received.

Example of Serial Data Transmission

Serial transmission has two classifications: asynchronous and synchronous.

1. Asynchronous Serial Transmission

Data bits can be sent at any point in time. Stop bits and start bits are used between data bytes to synchronize the transmitter and receiver and to ensure that the data is transmitted correctly. The time between sending and receiving data bits is not constant, so gaps are used to provide time between transmissions.

The advantage of using the asynchronous method is that no synchronization is required between the transmitter and receiver devices. It is also a more cost effective method. A disadvantage is that data transmission can be slower, but this is not always the case.

2. Synchronous Serial Transmission

Data bits are transmitted as a continuous stream in time with a master clock. The data transmitter and receiver both operate using a synchronized clock frequency; therefore, start bits, stop bits, and gaps are not used. This means that data moves faster and timing errors are less frequent because the transmitter and receiver time is synced. However, data accuracy is highly dependent on timing being synced correctly between devices. In comparison with asynchronous serial transmission, this method is usually more expensive.

When is serial transmission used to send data?

Serial transmission is normally used for long-distance data transfer. It is also used in cases where the amount of data being sent is relatively small. It ensures that data integrity is maintained as it transmits the data bits in a specific order, one after another. In this way, data bits are received in-sync with one another.

What is parallel transmission?

When data is sent using parallel data transmission, multiple data bits are transmitted over multiple channels at the same time. This means that data can be sent much faster than using serial transmission methods.

Example of Parallel Data Transmission

Given that multiple bits are sent over multiple channels at the same time, the order in which a bit string is received can depend on various conditions, such as proximity to the data source, user location, and bandwidth availability. Two examples of parallel interfaces can be seen below. In the first parallel interface, the data is sent and received in the correct order. In the second parallel interface, the data is sent in the correct order, but some bits were received faster than others.

Example of Parallel Transmission: Data Received Correctly.

Example of Parallel Transmission: Data Received Incorrectly.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Parallel Data Transmission

The main advantages of parallel transmission over serial transmission are:

• It is easier to program;
• Data is sent faster.

Although parallel transmission can transfer data faster, it requires more transmission channels than serial transmission. This means that data bits can be out of sync, depending on transfer distance and how fast each bit loads. A simple of example of where this can be seen is with a voice over IP (VOIP) call when distortion or interference is noticeable. It can also be seen when there is skipping or interference on a video stream.

When is parallel transmission used to send data?

Parallel transmission is used when:

• A large amount of data is being sent;
• The data being sent is time-sensitive;
• The data needs to be sent quickly.

A scenario where parallel transmission is used to send data is video streaming. When a video is streamed to a viewer, bits need to be received quickly to prevent a video pausing or buffering. Video streaming also requires the transmission of large volumes of data. The data being sent is also time-sensitive as slow data streams result in poor viewer experience.

E-Mail

Electronic mail (email or e-mail) is a method of exchanging messages (“mail”) between people using electronic devices. Invented by Ray Tomlinson, email first entered limited use in the 1960s and by the mid-1970s had taken the form now recognized as email. Email operates across computer networks, which today is primarily the Internet. Some early email systems required the author and the recipient to both be online at the same time, in common with instant messaging. Today’s email systems are based on a store-and-forward model. Email servers accept, forward, deliver, and store messages. Neither the users nor their computers are required to be online simultaneously; they need to connect only briefly, typically to a mail server or a webmail interface for as long as it takes to send or receive messages or to download it.

Originally an ASCII text-only communications medium, Internet email was extended by Multipurpose Internet Mail Extensions (MIME) to carry text in other character sets and multimedia content attachments. International email, with internationalized email addresses using UTF-8, has been standardized, but as of 2017 it has not been widely adopted.

The history of modern Internet email services reaches back to the early ARPANET, with standards for encoding email messages published as early as 1973. An email message sent in the early 1970s looks very similar to a basic email sent today.

FAX

Fax (short for facsimile), sometimes called telecopying or telefax (the latter short for telefacsimile), is the telephonic transmission of scanned printed material (both text and images), normally to a telephone number connected to a printer or other output device. The original document is scanned with a fax machine (or a telecopier), which processes the contents (text or images) as a single fixed graphic image, converting it into a bitmap, and then transmitting it through the telephone system in the form of audio-frequency tones. The receiving fax machine interprets the tones and reconstructs the image, printing a paper copy. Early systems used direct conversions of image darkness to audio tone in a continuous or analog manner. Since the 1980s, most machines modulate the transmitted audio frequencies using a digital representation of the page which is compressed to quickly transmit areas which are all-white or all-black.

Fax in the 21st century

Although businesses usually maintain some kind of fax capability, the technology has faced increasing competition from Internet-based alternatives. In some countries, because electronic signatures on contracts are not yet recognized by law, while faxed contracts with copies of signatures are, fax machines enjoy continuing support in business. In Japan, faxes are still used extensively for cultural and graphemic reasons and are available for sending to both domestic and international recipients from over 81% of all convenience stores nationwide. Convenience-store fax machines commonly print the slightly re-sized content of the sent fax in the electronic confirmation-slip, in A4 paper size.

In many corporate environments, freestanding fax machines have been replaced by fax servers and other computerized systems capable of receiving and storing incoming faxes electronically, and then routing them to users on paper or via an email. Such systems have the advantage of reducing costs by eliminating unnecessary printouts and reducing the number of inbound analog phone lines needed by an office.

The once ubiquitous fax machine has also begun to disappear from the small office and home office environments. Remotely hosted fax-server services are widely available from VoIP and e-mail providers allowing users to send and receive faxes using their existing e-mail accounts without the need for any hardware or dedicated fax lines. Personal computers have also long been able to handle incoming and outgoing faxes using analog modems or ISDN, eliminating the need for a stand-alone fax machine. These solutions are often ideally suited for users who only very occasionally need to use fax services. In July 2017 the United Kingdom’s National Health Service was said to be the world’s largest purchaser of fax machines because the digital revolution has largely bypassed it. In June 2018 the Labour Party said that the NHS had at least 11,620 fax machines in operation and in December the Department of Health and Social Care said that no more fax machines could be bought from 2019 and that the existing ones must be replaced by secure email by 31 March 2020.

Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, generally viewed as digitally advanced in the NHS, was engaged in a process of removing its fax machines in early 2019. This involved quite a lot of e-fax solutions because of the need to communicate with pharmacies and nursing homes which may not have access to the NHS email system and may need something in their paper records.

In 2018 two-thirds of Canadian doctors reported that they primarily used fax machines to communicate with other doctors. Faxes are still seen as safer and more secure and electronic systems are often unable to communicate with each other.

Voice Message

A voice message is a message containing audio of a person’s voice. Voice itself could be ‘packaged’ and sent through the IP backbone so that it reaches its marked ‘address’. In a technical sense, the process of sending ‘voice packets’ is a semi passive way of communication. However, given the speed at which it could be delivered can make the communication sound seamless.

Video Message

Communicating visually with another person via computer. Video chat may refer to video calling or video messaging. For example, Facebook’s Skype and Apple’s FaceTime video calling services are sometimes called video chat. However, true video chat is more like text chat, whereby one party sends a message and waits for a reply. See chat, video calling, video instant messaging, videoconferencing and Glide.

Video Conferencing

Video conferencing is a technology that allows users in different locations to hold face-to-face meetings without having to move to a single location together. This technology is particularly convenient for business users in different cities or even different countries because it saves time, expense, and hassle associated with business travel. Uses for video conferencing include holding routine meetings, negotiating business deals, and interviewing job candidates.

How Video Conferencing Works?

Video conferencing’s main advantage over teleconferencing is that users can see each other, which allows them to develop stronger relationships. When a video conference is held for informal purposes, it is called a video call or video chat.

There are a variety of ways video conferencing can be conducted. Individuals may use web cameras connected to our built into laptop, tablet, or desktop computers. Smartphones equipped with cameras may also be used to connect for video conferences. In such instances, a software-based platform typically is used to transmit the communication over Internet protocols.

Some businesses use dedicated video conferencing rooms that have been equipped with high-grade cameras and screens to ensure the conversation is clear and with limited technical faults. Third-party providers often install and assemble the hardware needed to conduct the video conference.

Uses of Video Conferencing

Companies with multiple offices might establish direct video communications between their locations in order to allow their teams to work more collaboratively.

Video conferencing can also be used as a medium for conducting training, with the instructor teaching a remote class from almost anywhere. This can be done in a corporate context, especially for getting workers the knowledge they need to better perform their jobs. The academic world can also make use of video conferencing to connect a traditional classroom setting with students who are based a considerable distance from the school.

A video conference may also be used to conduct regular meetings with a company staff or to confer with shareholders about the latest activities at the business. It may be used to announce significant changes at a company, such as introducing a new CEO or to present information in an interactive way that allows all participants to engage in discussion about what they see on screen.

Hotels and conference centers sometimes make video conferencing services available to guests who require such services. This may be offered in suites or conference rooms that have been equipped for this purpose.

There are many ways a personal electronic device can connect to the internet.  They all use different hardware and each has a range of connection speeds.  As technology changes, faster internet connections are needed to handle those changes.  I thought it would be interesting to list some of the different types of internet connections that are available for home and personal use, paired with their average speeds.

Dial-Up (Analog 56K)

Dial-up access is cheap but slow. A modem (internal or external) connects to the Internet after the computer dials a phone number.  This analog signal is converted to digital via the modem and sent over a land-line serviced by a public telephone network.  Telephone lines are variable in quality and the connection can be poor at times.  The lines regularly experience interference and this affects the speed, anywhere from 28K to 56K.  Since a computer or other device shares the same line as the telephone, they can’t be active at the same time.

DSL

DSL stands for Digital Subscriber Line.  It is an internet connection that is always “on”.  This uses 2 lines so your phone is not tied up when your computer is connected.  There is also no need to dial a phone number to connect.  DSL uses a router to transport data and the range of connection speed, depending on the service offered, is between 128K to 8 Mbps.

Cable

Cable provides an internet connection through a cable modem and operates over cable TV lines.  There are different speeds depending on if you are uploading data transmissions or downloading.  Since the coax cable provides a much greater bandwidth over dial-up or DSL telephone lines, you can get faster access.  Cable speeds range from 512K to 20 Mbps.

Wireless

Wireless, or Wi-Fi, as the name suggests, does not use telephone lines or cables to connect to the internet.   Instead, it uses radio frequency.  Wireless is also an always on connection and it can be accessed from just about anywhere.  Wireless networks are growing in coverage areas by the minute so when I mean access from just about anywhere, I really mean it.  Speeds will vary, and the range is between 5 Mbps to 20 Mbps.

Satellite

Satellite accesses the internet via a satellite in Earth’s orbit. The enormous distance that a signal travels from earth to satellite and back again, provides a delayed connection compared to cable and DSL.  Satellite connection speeds are around 512K to 2.0 Mbps.

Cellular

Cellular technology provides wireless Internet access through cell phones.  The speeds vary depending on the provider, but the most common are 3G and 4G speeds.  A 3G is a term that describes a 3rd generation cellular network obtaining mobile speeds of around 2.0 Mbps.  4G is the fourth generation of cellular wireless standards. The goal of 4G is to achieve peak mobile speeds of 100 Mbps but the reality is about 21 Mbps currently.

Data are the special type of information generally obtained through observations, surveys, inquiries, or are generated as a result of human activity. Methods of data collection are essential for anyone who wish to collect data.  Data collection is a fundamental aspect and as a result, there are different methods of collecting data which when used on one particular set will result in different kinds of data. Collection of data refers to a purpose gathering of information and relevant to the subject-matter of the study from the units under investigation. The method of collection of data mainly depends upon the nature, purpose and the scope of inquiry on one hand and availability of resources, and the time to the other. The statistical Data may be classified into primary and secondary depending upon the nature and mode of collection.

Data collection is a very important part of science. Meteorologists data related to weather over time to keep a record and makes forecasts on basis of it. Other example include Oceanographers collecting data on the salinity (saltiness) of seawater studying changes in trends of our Earth’s oceans. Although have been collected by hand for thousands of years, the technology to collect data electronically has been around for fewer than 80 years and made significant development in this time period. Only in the last 20 years this technology and advanced methods have been available to us.

Data Collection Methods:

Data collection is a process of collecting information from all the relevant sources to find answers to the research problem, test the hypothesis and evaluate the outcomes. Data collection methods can be divided into two categories: secondary methods of data collection and primary methods of data collection.

Methods of data collection for primary and secondary Data

(1) Primary data

Primary data are original observations collected by the researcher or his agent for the first time for any investigation and used by them in the statistical analysis.

The primary data is the one type of important data. It is collection of data from first hand information.

This information published by one organization for some purposes. This type of primary data is mostly pure and original data.

The primary data collection is having three different data collection methods are:

• Data Collection through Investigation:

In this method, trained investigators are working as employees for collecting the data. The researchers will use the tools like interview and collect the information from the individual persons.

• Personal Investigation Methods:

The researchers or the data collectors will conduct the survey and hence they collect the data. In this method we have to collect more accurate data and original data. This method is useful for small data collection only not big collection of data projects.

• Data Collection through Telephones:

The data researcher uses the tools like telephones, mobile phones to collect the information or data. This is accurate and very quick process for data collection. But information collected is not accurate and true.

(2) Secondary data

The secondary data is the other type of data, which is collection of data from second hand information. This information is known as, given data is already collected from any one persons for some purpose, and it has available for the present issues. And mostly these secondary data’s are not relevant and pure or original data

Two important Methods:

a) Official methods:

Data collecting from the ministry of finance, Agriculture, Industry and etc. These data collection methods are official methods. This method is used the tools of phone calls and surveys.

b) Semi–official methods:

This is the method of data collection from Railway boards, banks, population committee etc. This methods only used for the focusing groups, and interviews, and electronic mail surveys.

Ways of Collections

In this case the data’s are already available, it means the data’s are already collected and analyzed by someone else. It can be either published or unpublished data. When using the secondary data, the following characteristics must be followed:

• Reliability
• Suitability
• Adequate data

These data’s can be collected from the following places:

1. a) Official
2. b) Newspapers and journals
3. c) Research organizations like universities.

Secondary sources are data that already exist

• Previous research
• Official statistics
• Mass media products
• Diaries
• Letters
• Government reports
• Web information
• Historical data and information

1. Leadership skills

Do you possess good leadership skills? Do people like your leadership and does your leadership style inspire change? As a business owner, you must be able to manage your employees and the teams involved.

Businesses that are meeting their goals and aspirations have gotten where they are because of having leaders with the capacity to guide the businesses through the different challenges, but still come out on the other side having achieved what they set out to do. Being a great leader means that your employees work with you, question your moves at other times, and basically communicate well with you just to ensure that your business reaches its goals.

“The quality of a leader is reflected in the standards they set for themselves.” – Ray Kroc

2. Excellent communication skills

For you to get the end product you had in mind when starting, you should be able to clearly communicate your goals to all the teams involved in the production and processing process. An entrepreneur needs to understand their employees, know their strengths or weaknesses, then help them use these effectively, making the business and the employee better. This is only possible through communication.

Communication must be two way and you should also listen. Good written and spoken communication skills are important out of the business establishment as well. Communication is integral when looking for funding, when handling complaints from customers, or when negotiating new deals.

3. Ambition

To change the world with your business, you need to have ambitious projects. Ambitious projects are often referred to as the disruptive ventures. To get on top of things and the industry, yours should be the project that will disrupt the society’s status quo.

As an entrepreneur, your ‘holy grail’ is a product or a service that will shake up the industry radically. This includes the ability to change the way people view things, interact or label things.

4. Risk taker

An entrepreneur is the definition of a risk taker. Business growth depends on your ability to dive into the future of uncertainty while embracing all the challenges and the problems that will cross your path. You should be willing to risk your money, time, and other unknown factors. To deal with these risks and the unknown, you should set aside resources, bandwidth, and plans to deal with the unknown.

5. Fearlessness

You cannot run a business when you are afraid of every turn you are about to make. Being a risk taker requires a fearless spirit. There will be scary moments, but your ability to maneuver and win over the fear is the power that will propel you and your business to greater heights.

6. Ability to listen to your gut instincts and to trust them

There isn’t one successful entrepreneur who faults or regrets trusting their instincts. In a normal consumer life as well as the business world, you have to listen to that little voice and step out when your gut says so.

As a result of the impressive results reported by entrepreneurs who always trust their instincts, gut instincts have been dubbed the sixth sense. This sixth sense is very powerful and you should be able and willing to trust and rely on it. It doesn’t matter what the rest of the team thinks.

7. Visionary

You cannot take on the entrepreneurship bull by the head and ride it without falling over or getting it to trample on you if you have a solid vision in mind. Perceptive and creative business visionaries tend to twist normal views, distorting reality and eventually change the way people see the world. To be in the top entrepreneurial league, you should be able to cultivate these visions in your mind so as to make the big breakthroughs, which could never be envisioned by an ordinary person.

“The key to realizing a dream is to focus not on success but on significance — and then even the small steps and little victories along your path will take on greater meaning.” – Oprah Winfrey

8. Motivation and passion

The most important trait ingrained in successful entrepreneurs is passion in what one does and the motivation to hit the big business storms every day without giving up. Because of passion, you will stay up late to complete unfinished tasks, wake up earlier for your customers to get their deliveries in time, work endlessly on the same thing without getting bored, willingness to make the business better and stronger, and the ability to be in love with that which you wake up to, every day. Without this and the internal motivation to make things work, you will not succeed in business.

9. Tech savviness

You don’t have to be a pro in all matters tech and programming but in this digital age, you should have the least possible capacity to market your products or services online and to connect to your customers, competitors, or suppliers through social media platforms. Digital marketing is crucial and you should do some basic SEO. You should also use the company’s and your personal social media platforms to build and enhance your business brand.

10. Good financial management skills

You need to manage your money. Even when you have a CFO, you still have to control things and help in making business decisions concerning money. Besides financial management, you must have the ability and the capacity to raise funds. To get investors interested in your business, you should be able to show them what you have and what their investment can do for your business.

In conclusion, the success of your business depends on these skills and traits. A rapidly growing business is one that is not only disruptive, but also one that leaves a positive impact in society.

Generation of Ideas: Identifying suitable project ideas is the most important step in the whole process of project preparation. The search for promising project ideas is the first step towards establishing a successful venture. The key to success lies in getting into the right business in the right time. The objective is to identify investment opportunities which are feasible and promising.

Generation of an idea of producing a new product, new business, requires imagination sensitivity to environmental changes and the realistic assessment of what the firm can do? A project is not a product or commodity to be purchased. It has a promise as well as a risk.

An idea regarding a required intervention in a specific area to address identified problem is formed and developed. This idea is usually hatched through discussions by specialists and local leaders in a community need based on issues and turned into a proposal.

Generally project ideas are generated depending on:            

• Consumer needs
• Market demand
• Resource availability
• Technology
• Natural calamity
• SWOT analysis
• Political considerations etc.,

The project idea selection is selection of project idea from available alternatives is to be best suited to the entrepreneurs’ capacity, competence and willingness. The project Selection includes

• Profitability
• Feasibility
• Resource-ability
• Acceptability

The basic criterion for selection of a project could be existence of a favorable cost-benefit relationship.

People would like to select a project which requires a minimum investment, low degree of competence, completed in the shortest time, and which has the highest return potential.

A project idea should be SMART:

S: Specific objective

M: Measurable

A: Achievable

R: Realistic

T: Time bounded

Project identification: A search for promising   project ideas could contribute towards achieving specified development objectives. Project identification should be an integral part of the Macro-planning exercise of the state with sectored information and strategies as the main source of the ideas.

Generally, ideas are formed from several sources based merely on some vested interests of the individuals involved. However irrespective of their origin, project ideas should be in general aim at overcoming constraints on the national development effort.

Good project ideas are the key to success. Therefore, a wide variety of sources should be tapped to analyse them. To have a wide range of options, the sources of project ideas can be categorized into two they are:

1. Micro level sources
2. Macro level sources

A Micro level

At micro level project ideas can be generated from various sources. Some of these are discussed below.

1. Analysis of the performance of existing industries; A study of existing industries in terms of their profitability utilization can indicate promoting investment opportunities which are profitable and relatively risk free. An examination of capacity utilization of various industries provides information about the potential for further investments. Such study is more useful if it is done region wise. Particularly for products which have high demand for consumption and wide scope for production.
2. Examination of the input-outputs of various industries: The analysis of inputs required for various industries may throw some project ideas. Opportunities exist when Materials, purchased parts, or supplies are presently procured from distance sources with considerable time lag and transportation cost and Several firms produce internally some components parts which can be supplied at lower cost by a single producer who can enjoy economics of scale. Similarly, a study of the output of the existing industries may reveal opportunities for adding value through further processing of the main outputs, by produce, by products as well as waste products.
3. Review of imports and exports; Analysis of import statistics for a period of five to seven years is helpful in understanding the trend of imports of various goods and the potential for import substitution. Indigenous manufacture of goods currently imported is advantageous for several reasons. It improves the balance of payments situation. It generates employment, and it provides market for the supporting industries and services. Likewise an examination of export statistics is useful in learning about the export possibilities of various products.
4. Investigation of local materials and resources: A search for project ideas may begin an investigation into local resources and skills. Various ways of adding value to locally available materials may be examined. Similarly, the skills of local artisans may suggest products that might be profitably produced and marketed. Such assessment may consider issues such as the human and material resources, Infrastructure facilities and market for various products.
5. Analysis of economic and social changes: A study of economic and social trends is helpful in projecting demands for various goods and services. Changing economic conditions and consumer preferences provide new businesses opportunities. For example, a greater awareness of the value of time is dawning on public. Hence the demand for time saving products like prepared food items, ovens and powered vehicles has been increasing. The other change that can be seen during analysis is the increasing desire for the leisure and recreational activities. This has caused a growth in the market for recreational products and services.
6. Study of new technological developments: New products are the new process and technologies for existing products developed by the research laboratories may be examined for profitable communication.
7. Exploring the possibility of reviving sick units: Industrials sickness is spread in many countries. There are innumerable bossiness units which have been characterized as sick. These units either closed are have reached the prospect of closure. A significant proportion of sick units however can be nursed back to health by sound management, fusion of further capital and provision of   complementary inputs. Hence there is a fairly good scope investment in this area.
8. Identification of unfulfilled psychological needs:

For well-established multi brand product groups like bathing soaps, detergents, cosmetics and tooth paste, the questions to be asked is not whether there is an opportunity to manufacture them for satisfying an actual physical need, but whether there are certain psychological needs of the consumers which are presently unfulfilled.

9. Attending trade fairs:

National and international trade fairs provide an excellent opportunity to know about new product and developments.

10. Stimulating creativity for generation’s new product lines:

New product ideas may be generated by thinking along the following lines: Modifications, rearrangements, reversal, magnifications, reductions, substitutions, adoptions and combinations.

2. At Macro level:

At macro level project ideas can be obtained from various sources as mentioned below:

1. Project ideas from government policies and plan:

From time to time governments produce guidelines such as the national development plans and session papers which spell out the directions the government should take to achieve certain targets in various sectors of the economy and guidelines to various organizations and individuals. The information contained in these documents is useful in generating ideas for new projects for Ex: If the government intends to start number of new schools in a given area then a number of projects which of related to the establishment such schools would be considered.

2. Project ideas from technical specifications:

For many industrial projects, ideas will usually tend to come from technical specifications, which by virtue of their experience and for research findings will give use full information which may lead to the manufacturing of new products or improving the existing products.

3. Project ideas from local leaders:

For community and social projects, local leaders usually have important ideas, which they together with their local people, have identified as being important in improving the welfare of the people. In the case of social projects depending in which one is to identify, there may be number of other projects which are linked to the identified projects.

Ex:  A project of constructing a dam for the generation of hydro electric power will be giving suggestions for the start of irrigation projects, a fishing project and other related projects.

4. Project ideas from Entrepreneurs:

For commercial and industrial projects, Entrepreneurship is an important source of ideas. Entrepreneurships include the characteristics of preparation of managerial competence and motivation to achieve results. Although entrepreneurship skills have been passed on from one generation to another along Family and social-economic circles, it has been recognized that programs for entrepreneurship development will help individuals to come up with useful ideas which can be translated into viable projects.

Monitoring the environment

Basically a promising investment idea enables a firm to exploit opportunities in the environment by drawing on its competitive strengths. Hence the firm must systematically monitor the environment and asses its competitive abilities. For purposes of monitoring the business environment may be divided into six broad sectors. They are as follows:

Economic Sector

• State of the economy
• Overall rate of growth
• Growth rate of primary, secondary, and territory sectors
• Cyclical fluctuations
• Linkage with the world economy
• Trade surplus/deficits balance of payment situation

Government Sector

• Industrial policy
• Government programs and projects
• Tax frame work
• Subsidies, incentives, and concessions
• Import and export policies
• Financing norms
• Lending conditions of financial institutions and commercial banks

Technological Sector

• Emergence of new technologies
• Access to technical know-how, foreign as well as local
• Receptiveness on the part of industry

Socio-demographic Sector

• Population trends
• Age shifts in population
• Income distribution
• Educational profile Employment of women
• Attitudes toward consumption and investment

Competition Sector

• Number of firms in the Industry
• Degree of homogeneity and differentiation among products
• Entry barriers
• Comparison with substitutes in terms of quality, price, appeal, and functional performance
• Marketing policies and practices

Supplier Sector

• Availability and cost of raw materials
• Availability and cost of energy

Screening potentially promising project ideas

Once a list of project ideas has been put forward, the first step is select one or more of them as potentially promising. This calls for quick preliminary screening by experienced professionals who could also modify some of the proposals. At this stage, the screening criteria are vague and rough, that becomes specific and refined as project planning advances, during the preliminary screening to eliminate ideas, which are not promising, and one is required to look into the following aspects

1. Compatibility with the promoter:

The idea must be compatible with the interest, personality, and resources of the entrepreneur. It means it should fit to the personality of the entrepreneur; it should be accessible to him and it should offer him the prospect growth and high return on the invested capital.

2. Consistency with government priorities:

The project idea must be feasible given the national goals and governments regularity framework.

the first step in project analysis is to estimate the potential size of the market for the product proposed to be manufactured (or service planned to b offered) and get an idea about the market share that is likely to be captured. Put differently, market and demand analysis is concerned with two broad issues:
1) What is the likely aggregate demand for the product/service?
2) What share of the market will the proposed project enjoy?

Given the importance of market and demand analysis, it should be carried-out in an orderly and systematic manner:

1) Situational analysis and specification of objectives,
2) Collection of secondary information,
3) Conduct of market survey,
4) Characterization of the market,
5) Demand forecasting,
6) Market planning.

1) Situational Analysis and Specification of Objectives: In order to get a “feel” of the relationship between the product and its market, the project may informally talk to customers, competitors, middlemen, and others in the industry. Wherever possible, h may look at the experience of the company to learn about the performances and purchasing power of customers, actions and strategies of competitors and practices of the middlemen.

If such a situational analysis generates enough data to measure the market and get a reliable handle over projected demand and revenues, a formal study need not be carried- out, particularly when cost and time considerations so suggest.

2) Collection of Secondary Information: Secondary information is the information that has been gathered in some other context and is already available. Primary information, on the other hand, represents information that is collected for the first time to meet the specific purpose on hand. Secondary information provides the base and the starting point for the market analysis.

General Sources of Secondary Information
i) Census of India,
ii) National sample survey reports,
iii) Plan reports,
iv) Statistical abstract of the Indian union,
v) India year book,
vi) Statistical year book,
vii) Economic survey of industries,
viii) Annual survey of industries,
ix) Annual reports of the development wing, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, etc.

3) Conduct of Market Survey: Secondary information, though useful, often does not provide a comprehensive basis for market and demand analysis. It needs to be supplemented with primary information gathered through a market survey, specific to the project being appraised.

The market survey may be census survey or a sample survey. In a census survey, the entire population is covered. The word ‘population’ is used here in a particular sense. It refers to the totality of all units under consideration in a specific study.

The market survey, in practice, is typically a sample survey. In such a survey a sample of population is contacted or observed and relevant information is gathered. On the basis of such information, inferences about the population may be drawn.

The information sought in a market survey may relate to one or more of the following:
i) Total demand and rate of growth of demand,
ii) Demand in different segments of the market,
iii) Income and price elasticities of demand,
iv) Motives for buying,
v) Purchasing plans and intentions,
vi) Satisfaction with existing products,
vii) Unsatisfied needs,
viii) Attitudes toward various products,
ix) Distributive trade practices and preferences,
x) Socio-economic characteristics of buyers.

4) Characterization of the Market: Based on the information gathered from secondary sources and through the market survey, the market for the product/ service may be described in terms of the following:

i) Effective Demand in the Past and Present: To gauge the effective demand in the past and present, the starting point typically is apparent consumption which is deemed as:

Production + Imports – Exports – Changes in stock level

The figure of apparent consumption has to be adjusted for consumption of the product by the producers and the effect of abnormal factors. The consumption series, after such adjustments, may be obtained for several years.

ii) Break-down of Demand: To get a deeper insight into the nature of demand, the aggregate (total) market demand may be broken-down into demand for different segments of the market. Market segments may be defined by:
a) Nature of product.
b) Consumer group, and
c) Geographical division.

iii) Price: Price statics must be gathered along with statistics pertaining to physical quantities. It may be helpful to distinguish the following types of prices.
a) Manufacturer’s price quoted as FOB (Free on Board) price or CIF (Cost, Insurance and Freight) price,
b) Landed price for imported goods,
c) Average wholesale price and
d) Average retail price.

iv) Methods of Distribution and Sales Promotion: The method of distribution may vary with the nature of the product. Capital goods, industrial raw materials or intermediates and consumer products tend to have different distribution channels. Likewise, methods used for sales promotion (advertising, discounts, gift schemes, etc.) may vary from product to product.

v) Consumers: Consumers may be characterized along two dimensions as follows:

vi) Supply and Competition: It is necessary to know the existing sources of supply and whether they are foreign or domestic. For domestic sources of supply, information along the following lines may be gathered;
a) Location,
b) Present production capacity,
c) Planned expansion,
d) Capacity utilization level,
e) Bottlenecks in production and
f) Cost structure.

Competition from substitutes and near-substitutes should be specified because almost any product may be replaced by some other product as a result of relative changes in price, quality, availability, promotional effort and so on.

vii) Government policy: Thee role of the government in influencing the demand and market for a product may be significant. Governmental plans, policies, and legislations, which have a bearing on the market and demand of the product under examination, should be spell-out. These are reflected in:
a) Production targets in national plans,
b) Import and export trade controls,
c) Import duties,
d) Export incentives,
e) Excise duties,
f) Sales tax,
g) Industrial licensing,
h) Preferential purchases,
i) Credit controls, financial regulations and
j) Subsides/ penalties of various kinds.

5) Demand Forecasting: On the basis of analysis and interpretation of information gathered about various aspects of market and demand from primary and secondary sources, an attempt is made to forecast the future demand of the proposed product or service. There are various methods of demand forecasting available to the market analyst.

Methods of Demand Analysis

The various methods of forecasting demand may be grouped under the following categories:

1) Opinion Polling Method: In this method, the opinion of the buyers, sales force and experts could be gathered to determine the emerging trend in the market. The opinion polling methods of demand forecasting are of three kinds:
i) Consumers Survey Methods: The most direct method of forecasting demand in the short-run is survey method. Surveys are conducted to collect information about future purchase plans of the probable buyers of the product. Survey methods include:

a) Complete Enumeration Survey: Under the Complete Enumeration Survey, the firm has to go for a door to door survey for the forecast period by contacting all the households in the area.

b) Sample Survey and Test Marketing: Under this method some representative households are selected on random basis as samples and their opinion is taken as the generalized opinion. This method on random basis as samples and their opinion is taken as the generalized opinion. This method is based on the basic assumption that the sample truly represents the population. A variant of sample survey technique is test marketing. Product testing essentially involves placing the product with a number of users for a set period. Their reactions to the product are noted after a period of time and an estimate of likely demand is mad from the result.

c) End–use Method: In this method, the sale of the product under consideration is projecting on the basis of demand survey of the industries using this product and intermediate product. In other words, demand for the final product is the end use demand of the intermediate product used in the production of this final product.

ii) Sales Force Opinion Method: This is also known as Collective Opinion Method. In this method, instead of consumers, the opinion of the salesman is sought. It is sometimes referred as the “grass roots approach” as it is a bottom-up method that requires each sales person in the company to make an individual forecast for his or her particular sales territory. These individual forecasts are discussed and agreed with the sales manager. The composite of all forecasts then constitutes the sales forecast for the organization.

iii) Delphi Method: This method is also known as Expert opinion method of investigation. In this method instead of depending upon the opinions of buyers and salesmen, firms can obtain views of the specialists or experts in their respective fields. Opinions of different experts are sought and their identity is kept secret. These opinions are than exchanged among the various experts and their reactions are sought and analyzed. The process goes on until some sort of unanimity is arrived at among all the experts. This method is best suited in circumstances where intractable changes are occurring.

2) Statistical or Analytical Methods: Statistical methods are considered to be superior techniques of demand estimation because:

i) The element of subjectivity in this method is minimum,

ii) Method of estimation is scientific,

iii) Estimation is based on the theoretical relationship between the dependents and independents variables,

iv) Estimates are relatively more reliable and

v) Estimation involves smaller cost.

The statistical methods, which are frequently used, for making demand projections are:

i) Thread Projection Method: An old firm can use its data of past years regarding its sales in past years. These data are known as time series of sales. A trend line can be fitted by graphic method or by algebraic equations. Equations method is more appropriate. The trend can be estimated by using any one of the following methods.

a) Graphical Method: A trend line can be fitted through a series graphically. Old values of sales for different areas are plotted on a graph and a free hand curve is drawn passing through as many points as possible. The direction of this free hand curve shows the trend. The main draw back of this method is that it may show the trend but not measure it.

b) Least Square Method: The least square method is based on the assumption that the past rate of change of the variable under study will continue in the future. It is a mathematical procedure for fitting a line to a set of observed data points in such a manner that the sum of the squared difference between the calculated and observed value is minimized. This technique is used to find a trend line which best fit the available data. The trend is then used to project department variable in the future. This method is very popular because it is simple and in expensive.

c) Time Series Methods: Time series forecasting methods are based on analysis of historical data (time series; a set of observations measured at successive times or over successive periods). They make the assumption that past patterns in data can be used to forecast future data points.

Moving averages (simple moving average, weighed moving average); forecast is based on arithmetic average of a given number of past data points.

Components of Time series Demand

Average: The mean of the observations over time.
• Trend: A gradual increase or decrease in the average over time.
• Seasonal Influence: Predictable short-term cycling behavior due to time of day, week, month, season, year, etc.
• Cyclical Movement: Unpredictable long-term cycling behavior due to business cycle or product/service life cycle.
• Random Error: Remaining variation that cannot be explained by the other four components.

d) Exponential Smoothing: It is one of the methods of trend projection methods. Exponential smoothing is distinguishable by the special way it weights ach past demand. The pattern of weights is exponential in form. Demand for the most recent period is weighted most heavily; the weights placed on successively older periods decrease exponentially. In other words , the weights decrease in magnitude the future back in time the data are weighted ; the decrease is non-linear (exponential).

ii) Regression method: This is a very common method of forecasting demand. Under this method a relationship is established between quantity demanded (dependent variable) and independent variables such as income, price of the good, prices of the related goods etc. Once the relationship is established, we drive regression equation assuming relationship between dependent and independent variables. Once the regression equation is derived the value of Y i.e. quantity demanded can be estimated for any given value of X.

iii) Simultaneous equations Methods of Forecasting: The econometric model forecasting involves estimating several simultaneous equations, which are, generally, behavioral equations, mathematical identities and market-clearing equations.

The econometric model technique is also known as simultaneous equations method and complete system approach to forecasting. This technique uses sophisticated mathematical and statistical tools.

iv) Barometric Method: It is also known as ‘leading indicators forecasting’. National bureau of Economic Research of U.S.A. has identified three types of indicators, coincidental indicators and Lagging indicators.

The analyst should establish relationship between the sales of the product and the economic indicators to project the correct sales and to measure to what extent these indicators affect the sales. To establish relationship is not easy task especially in case of new product where there is no past record.

6) Market Planning: The market plans usually have the following components:

i) Current Marketing Situation: This part of the marketing plan deals with the different dimensions of the current situation. It examines the market situation, competitive situation, distribution situation and the macro-environment. In other words, it paints a pen-picture of the present.

ii) Opportunity and Issue Analysis: In this section a SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat Analysis) is conducted for Alpha and the core issues before the product are identified.

iii) Objectives: Objectives have to be clear cut, specific and achievable.

iv) Marketing Strategy: The marketing strategy covers the following: target segment, positioning, product line, price, distribution, sales force, sales promotion and advertising.

v) Action Programme: The last component of market planning is the action programme. Action programmes operationalize the strategy.