Trend analysis

Trend analysis is a technique used in technical analysis that attempts to predict future stock price movements based on recently observed trend data. Trend analysis uses historical data, such as price movements and trade volume, to forecast the long-term direction of market sentiment.

Trend analysis tries to predict a trend, such as a bull market run, and ride that trend until data suggests a trend reversal, such as a bull-to-bear market. Trend analysis is helpful because moving with trends, and not against them, will lead to profit for an investor. It is based on the idea that what has happened in the past gives traders an idea of what will happen in the future. There are three main types of trends: short-, intermediate- and long-term.

A trend is a general direction the market is taking during a specified period of time. Trends can be both upward and downward, relating to bullish and bearish markets, respectively. While there is no specified minimum amount of time required for a direction to be considered a trend, the longer the direction is maintained, the more notable the trend.

Trend analysis is the process of looking at current trends in order to predict future ones and is considered a form of comparative analysis. This can include attempting to determine whether a current market trend, such as gains in a particular market sector, is likely to continue, as well as whether a trend in one market area could result in a trend in another. Though a trend analysis may involve a large amount of data, there is no guarantee that the results will be correct.

In order to begin analyzing applicable data, it is necessary to first determine which market segment will be analyzed. For instance, you could focus on a particular industry, such as the automotive or pharmaceuticals sector, as well as a particular type of investment, such as the bond market.

Once the sector has been selected, it is possible to examine its general performance. This can include how the sector was affected by internal and external forces. For example, changes in a similar industry or the creation of a new governmental regulation would qualify as forces impacting the market. Analysts then take this data and attempt to predict the direction the market will take moving forward.

Critics of trend analysis, and technical trading in general, argue that markets are efficient, and already price in all available information. That means that history does not necessarily need to repeat itself and that the past does not predict the future. Adherents of fundamental analysis, for example, analyze the financial condition of companies using financial statements and economic models to predict future prices. For these types of investors, day-to-day stock movements follow a random walk that cannot be interpreted as patterns or trends.

Types of Trend

Uptrend

An uptrend or bull market is when financial markets and assets as with the broader economy-level move upward and keep increasing prices of the stock or the assets or even the size of the economy over the period. It is a booming time where jobs get created, the economy moves into a positive market, sentiments in the markets are favorable, and the investment cycle has started.

Downtrend

Companies shut down their operation or shrank the production due to a slump in sales. A downtrend or bear market is when financial markets and asset prices as with the broader economy-level move downward, and prices of the stock or the assets or even the size of the economy keep decreasing over time. Jobs are lost, asset prices start declining, sentiment in the market is not favorable for further investment, and investors run for the haven of the investment.

Sideways / horizontal Trend

A sideways/horizontal trend means asset prices or share prices as with the broader economy level are not moving in any direction; they are moving sideways, up for some time, then down for some time. The direction of the trend cannot be decided. It is the trend where investors are worried about their investment, and the government is trying to push the economy in an uptrend. Generally, the sideways or horizontal trend is considered risky because when sentiments will be turned against cannot be predicted; hence investors try to keep away in such a situation.

Uses:

Use in Technical Analysis

An investor can create his trend line from the historical stock prices, and he can use this information to predict the future movement of the stock price. The trend can be associated with the given information. Cause and effect relationships must be studied before concluding the trend analysis.

Use in Accounting

Sales and cost information of the organization’s profit and loss statement can be arranged on a horizontal line for multiple periods and examine trends and data inconsistencies. For instance, take the example of a sudden spike in the expenses in a particular quarter followed by a sharp decline in the next period, which is an indicator of expenses booked twice in the first quarter. Thus, the trend analysis in accounting is essential for examining the financial statements for inaccuracies to see whether certain heads should be adjusted before the conclusion is drawn from the financial statements.

Importance of Trend Analysis

• The trend is the best friend of the traders is a well-known quote in the market. Trend analysis tries to find a trend like a bull market run and profit from that trend unless and until data shows a trend reversal can happen, such as a bull to bear market. It is most helpful for the traders because moving with trends and not going against them will make a profit for an investor.
• Trends can be both growing and decreasing, relating to bearish and bullish market
• A trend is nothing but the general direction the market is heading during a specific period. There are no criteria to decide how much time is required to determine the trend; generally, the longer the direction, the more is reliably considered. Based on the experience and some empirical analysis, some indicators are designed, and standard time is kept for such indicators like 14 days moving average, 50 days moving average, and 200 days moving average.
• While no specified minimum amount of time is required for a direction to be considered a trend, the longer the direction is maintained, the more notable the trend.