Author: indiafreenotes

The commerce ministry is considering rationalising and simplifying certain export promotion schemes such as EPCG in the next foreign trade policy, which provides guideline and incentives for increasing shipments, an official said.

The ministry is in consultation with all stakeholders for the preparation of the next policy (2020-25), as the validity of the old one ends on March 31, 2020, the official said.

The ministry may also include new chapters for services, and e-commerce exports besides simplifying advance authorisation and self ratification schemes.

EPCG is an export promotion scheme under which an exporter can import certain amount of capital goods at zero duty for upgrading technology related with exports.

On the other hand, advance authorisation is issued to allow duty free import of inputs, which is physically incorporated in export product.

Total exports of third party could be counted as export obligation instead of only proceeds realised from third party by EPCG holders, the official said.

Similarly in the advance authorisation scheme, export obligation period could be enhanced from the current 18 months.

For the export oriented units, the ministry is considering getting policy formulation, regulation and administration under one roof.

The ministry’s arm directorate general of foreign trade (DGFT) is formulating the policy.

At present, tax benefits are provided under merchandise export from India scheme (MEIS) for goods and services export from India scheme (SEIS).

In the new policy, changes are expected in incentives given to goods as the current export promotion schemes are challenged by the US in the dispute resolution mechanism of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Against this backdrop, the government is recasting the incentives to make them compliant with global trade rules, being formulated by Geneva-based WTO, a 164-nation multilateral body.

Exporters are demanding incentives based on research and development, and product-specific clusters under the new policy.

Ludhiana-based Hand Tools Association President S C Ralhan said the new policy should have provisions for refund of indirect taxes like on oil and power, and state levies such as mandi tax.

During April-September 2019, exports were down 2.39 per cent to USD 159.57 billion while imports contracted by 7 per cent to USD 243.28 billion. Trade deficit during the period narrowed to USD 83.7 billion as against USD 98.15 billion in April-September 2018-19.

8 Important Changes in Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020

1. Five different schemes(Focus Product Scheme, Market Linked Focus Product Scheme, Focus Market Scheme, Agri Infrastructure Incentive Scrip, VKGUY) merged into single unconditional scheme named as Merchandise Export from India Scheme(MEIS).
2. SFIS(Serve from India Scheme) has been replaced by Service Exports from India Scheme(SEIS) so as to allow benefits to all services providers located in India, instead of Indian Service Providers. This amendment has been made to abide by the recent verdict pronounced by Hon’ble Delhi High Court in case of YUM RESTAURANTS(I) Pvt. Ltd. V. UOI & Ors.
3. Scrips as well as goods under both the aforesaid schemes shall be fully transferable.
4. MEIS benefit shall be computed on basis of FOB value of exports, whereas benefit under SEIS shall be based on Net foreign exchange earned.
5. Rates under SEIS shall be 3% and 5%, depending on nature of industry notified.
6. Import of capital goods under EPCG Authorisation Scheme shall not be eligible for exemption from payment of anti-dumping duty, safeguard duty and transitional product specific safeguard duty.
7. Scrips under both the schemes can be used for the payment of customs duty, excise duty and service act at the time of procurement;
8. Certificates by CA/CS/CWA, etc. shall be allowed to be uploaded electronically(digitally signed).

A trade agreement (also known as trade pact) is a wide-ranging taxes, tariff and trade treaty that often includes investment guarantees. It exists when two or more countries agree on terms that helps them trade with each other. The most common trade agreements are of the preferential and free trade types are concluded in order to reduce (or eliminate) tariffs, quotas and other trade restrictions on items traded between the signatories.

The logic of formal trade agreements is that they outline what is agreed upon and the punishments for deviation from the rules set in the agreement. Trade agreements therefore make misunderstandings less likely, and create confidence on both sides that cheating will be punished; this increases the likelihood of long-term cooperation. An international organization, such as the IMF, can further incentivize cooperation by monitoring compliance with agreements and reporting third countries of the violations. Monitoring by international agencies may be needed to detect non-tariff barriers, which are disguised attempts at creating trade barriers.

Trade pacts are frequently politically contentious since they may change economic customs and deepen interdependence with trade partners. Increasing efficiency through “free trade” is a common goal. For the most part, governments are supportive of further trade agreements.

Bilateral Trade

Bilateral trade is the exchange of goods between two nations promoting trade and investment. The two countries will reduce or eliminate tariffs, import quotas, export restraints, and other trade barriers to encourage trade and investment. In the United States, the Office of Bilateral Trade Affairs minimizes trade deficits through negotiating free trade agreements with new countries, supporting and improving existing trade agreements, promoting economic development abroad, and other actions.

Understanding Bilateral Trade

The goals of bilateral trade agreements are to expand access between two countries’ markets and increase their economic growth. Standardized business operations in five general areas prevent one country from stealing another’s innovative products, dumping goods at a small cost, or using unfair subsidies. Bilateral trade agreements standardize regulations, labor standards, and environmental protections.

The United States has signed bilateral trade agreements with 20 countries. It formed bilateral, free trade agreements with Israel (1985), Jordan (2001), Australia, Chile, Singapore (2004), Bahrain, Morocco, Oman (2006), Peru (2007), and with Panama, Colombia, South Korea (2012). The Dominican Republic – Central America FTR (CAFTA – DR) is a free trade agreement signed between the United States and smaller economies of Central America. These are El Salvador, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras. NAFTA replaced the bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico in 1994.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Bilateral Trade

Compared to multilateral trade agreements, bilateral trade agreements are easily negotiated, because only two nations are party to the agreement. Bilateral trade agreements initiate and reap trade benefits faster than multilateral agreements. When negotiations for a multilateral trade agreement are unsuccessful, many nations will negotiate bilateral treaties instead. However, new agreements often result in competing agreements between other countries, eliminating the advantages the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) confers between the original two nations.

Bilateral trade agreements also expand the market for a country’s goods. The United States vigorously pursued free trade agreements with a number of countries under the Bush administration during the early 2000s. In addition to creating a market for US goods, the expansion help spread the mantra of trade liberalization and encouraged open borders for trade. However, bilateral trade agreements can skew a country’s markets when large multinational corporations, which have significant capital and resources to operate at scale, enter a market dominated by smaller players. As a result, the latter might need to close shop when they are competed out of existence.

Examples of Bilateral Trade

In October 2014, the United States and Brazil settled a longstanding cotton dispute in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Brazil terminated the case, relinquishing its rights to countermeasures against U.S. trade or further proceedings in the dispute. Brazil also agreed to not bring new WTO actions against U.S. cotton support programs while the current U.S. Farm Bill is in force, or against agricultural export credit guarantees under the GSM-102 program. Because of the agreement, American businesses are no longer subject to countermeasures such as increased tariffs totaling hundreds of millions of dollars annually.

In March 2016, the U.S. government and the government of Peru reached an agreement removing barriers for U.S. beef exports to Peru that had been in effect since 2003. The agreement opened one of the fastest-growing markets in Latin America. In 2015, the United States exported $25.4 million in beef and beef products to Peru. Removal of Peru’s certification requirements, known as the export verification program, assured American ranchers expanded market access.

The agreement reflects the U.S. negligible risk classification for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). The United States and Peru agreed to amendments in certification statements making beef and beef products from federally inspected U.S. establishments eligible for export to Peru, rather than just beef and beef products from establishments participating in the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Export Verification (EV) programs under previous certification requirements.

Multilateral Trade Agreements

Multilateral trade agreements are treaties created between three or more nations looking to trade with each other. Trade agreements have exploded in the last 70 years as nations realized that international trade is critical to domestic health. When trade agreements are created between multiple countries, there are upsides and downsides.

Features of Multilateral Trade

• Multilateral agreements mean parties negotiate on more even ground, and they’re also more likely to make concessions for the “good of all” as opposed to the bilateral negotiation that can be done from a defensive stance as countries try to get the best deal for themselves.
• Multilateral trade tends to benefit growing economies, like how trade exploded for Mexico after NAFTA took effect in 1993. It led to trade growing between the nations by over 300 percent in the next 25 years. American companies benefitted from NAFTA, too, with many moving factories south; American jobs, some would say, were the losers in the deal.
• Companies love multilateral agreements because it means the trading regulations will be the same for each country behind the pact, simplifying the bureaucracy for businesses — but also potentially giving them new markets to access while keeping their legal costs low.
• Unfortunately, the many partners of multilateral trade agreements mean the treaties are complex and often misunderstood by the public. Part of this is because of concessions countries make during such large deals, which makes the average voter think their country’s coming up empty on the deal.
• Plus, small businesses often lose out with multilateral trade agreements, since it’s multinational companies who are most likely to profit, thanks to already operating in those regions. It can lead to small and mid-sized businesses having to move operations to new countries and make other big changes just to stay competitive. If their business suffers, it can cause job losses or force businesses to close altogether, making multilateral agreements somewhat unpopular.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) was established in 1964 as a permanent intergovernmental body.

UNCTAD is the part of the United Nations Secretariat dealing with trade, investment, and development issues. The organization’s goals are to: “maximize the trade, investment and development opportunities of developing countries and assist them in their efforts to integrate into the world economy on an equitable basis”. UNCTAD was established by the United Nations General Assembly in 1964 and it reports to the UN General Assembly and United Nations Economic and Social Council.

The primary objective of UNCTAD is to formulate policies relating to all aspects of development including trade, aid, transport, finance and technology. The conference ordinarily meets once in four years; the permanent secretariat is in Geneva.

One of the principal achievements of UNCTAD (1964) has been to conceive and implement the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP). It was argued in UNCTAD that to promote exports of manufactured goods from developing countries, it would be necessary to offer special tariff concessions to such exports. Accepting this argument, the developed countries formulated the GSP scheme under which manufacturers’ exports and import of some agricultural goods from the developing countries enter duty-free or at reduced rates in the developed countries. Since imports of such items from other developed countries are subject to the normal rates of duties, imports of the same items from developing countries would enjoy a competitive advantage.

The creation of UNCTAD in 1964 was based on concerns of developing countries over the international market, multi-national corporations, and great disparity between developed nations and developing nations. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development was established to provide a forum where the developing countries could discuss the problems relating to their economic development. The organisation grew from the view that existing institutions like GATT (now replaced by the World Trade Organization, WTO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank were not properly organized to handle the particular problems of developing countries. Later, in the 1970s and 1980s, UNCTAD was closely associated with the idea of a New International Economic Order (NIEO).

The first UNCTAD conference took place in Geneva in 1964, the second in New Delhi in 1968, the third in Santiago in 1972, fourth in Nairobi in 1976, the fifth in Manila in 1979, the sixth in Belgrade in 1983, the seventh in Geneva in 1987, the eighth in Cartagena in 1992, the ninth at Johannesburg (South Africa) in 1996, the tenth in Bangkok (Thailand) in 2000, the eleventh in São Paulo (Brazil) in 2004, the twelfth in Accra in 2008, the thirteenth in Doha (Qatar) in 2012 and the fourteenth in Nairobi (Kenya) in 2016.

Currently, UNCTAD has 195 member states and is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland. UNCTAD has 400 staff members and a bi-annual (2010–2011) regular budget of $138 million in core expenditures and $72 million in extra-budgetary technical assistance funds. It is a member of the United Nations Development Group. There are non-governmental organizations participating in the activities of UNCTAD.

The balance of payments (henceforth BOP) is a consolidated account of the receipts and payments from and to other countries arising out of all economic transactions during the course of a year.

In the words of C. P. Kindleberger: “The balance of payments of a country is a systematic record of all economic transactions between the residents of the reporting and the residents of the foreign countries during a given period of time.” Here by ‘residents’ we mean individuals, firms and government.

By all economic transactions we mean individuals, firms and government. By all economic transactions we mean transactions of both visible goods (merchandise) and invisible goods (services), assets, gifts, etc. In other words, the BOP shows how money is spent abroad (i.e., payments) and how money is received domestically (i.e., receipts).

Thus, a BOP account records all payments and receipts arising out of all economic transactions. All payments are regarded as debits (i.e., outflow of money) and are recorded in the accounts with a negative sign and all receipts are regarded as credits (i.e., inflow or money) and are recorded-in the accounts with a positive sign. The International Monetary Fund defines BOP as a “statistical statement that subsequently summarises, for a specific time period, the economic transactions of an economy with the rest of the world.”

Components of BOP Accounts

(A) The Current Account

The current account of BOP includes all transaction arising from trade in currently produced goods and services, from income accruing to capital by one country and invested in another and from unilateral transfers— both private and official. The current account is usually divided in three sub-divisions.

The first of these is called visible account or merchandise account or trade in goods account. This account records imports and exports of physical goods. The balance of visible exports and visible imports is called balance of visible trade or balance of merchandise trade [i.e., items 1(a), and 2(a) of Table 6.1].

The second part of the account is called the invisibles account since it records all exports and imports of services. The balance of these transactions is called the balance of invisible trade. As these transactions are not recorded—in the customs office unlike merchandise trade we call them invisible items.

It includes freights and fares of ships and planes, insurance and banking charges, foreign tours and education abroad, expenditures on foreign embassies, tran­sactions out of interest and dividends on foreigners’ investment and so on. Items 2(a) and 2(b) comprise services balance or balance of invisible trade in table 6.1.

The difference between merchandise trade and invisible trade (i.e., items 1 and 2) is known as the balance of trade.

There is another flow in the current account that consists of two items [3(a) and 3(b)]. Investment income consists of interest, profit and dividends on bonus and credits. Interest earned by a US resident from the TELCO share is one kind of investment income that represents a debit item here.

There may be a similar money inflow (i.e., credit item). Unrequited transfers include grants, gifts, pension, etc. These items are such that no reverse flow occurs. Or these are the items against which no quid pro quo is demanded. Residents of a country received these cost-free. Thus, unilateral transfers are one-way transactions. In other words, these items do not involve give and take unlike other items in the BOP account.

Thus the first three items of the BOP account are included in the current account. The current account is said to be favourable (or unfavourable) if receipts exceed (fall short of) payments.

(B) The Capital Account

The capital account shows transactions relating to the international movement of ownership of financial assets. It refers to cross-border movements in foreign assets like shares, property or direct acquisitions of companies’ bank loans, government securities, etc. In other words, capital account records export and import of capital from and to foreign countries.

The capital account is divided into two main subdivisions: short term and the long term move­ments of capital. A short term capital is one which matures in one year or less, such as bank accounts.

Long term capital is one whose maturity period is longer than a year, such as long term bonds or physical capital. Long term capital account is, again, of two categories: direct investment and portfolio investment. Direct investment refers to expenditure on fixed capital formation, while portfolio investment refers to the acquisition of financial assets like bonds, shares, etc. India’s investment (e.g., if an Indian acquires a new Coca- Cola plant in the USA) abroad represents an outflow of money. Similarly, if a foreigner acquires a new factory in India it will represent an inflow of funds.

Thus, through acquisition or sale and purchase of assets, capital movements take place. Investors then acquire controlling interests over the asset. Remember that exports and imports of equipment do not appear in the capital account. On the other hand, portfolio investment refers to changes in the holding of shares and bonds. Such investment is portfolio capital and the ownership of paper assets like shares does not ensure legal control over the firms.

[In this connection, the concepts of capital exports and capital imports require little elabo­ration. Suppose, a US company purchases a firm operating in India. This sort of foreign investment is called capital import rather than capital export. India acquires foreign currency after selling the firm to a US company. As a result, India acquires purchasing power abroad. That is why this transaction is included in the credit side of India’s BOP accounts. In the same way, if India invests in a foreign country,, it is a payment and will be recorded on the debit side. This is called capital export. Thus, India earns foreign currency by exporting goods and services and by importing capital. Similarly, India releases foreign currency by importing visible and invisibles and exporting capital.

(C) Statistical Discrepancy Errors and Omi­ssions

The sum of A and B (Table 6.1) is called the basic balance. Since BOP always balances in theory, all debits must be offset by all credits, and vice versa. In practice, it rarely happens—parti­cularly because statistics are incomplete as well as imperfect. That is why errors and omissions are considered so that the BOP accounts are kept in balance (Item C).

(D) The Official Reserve Account

The total of A, B, C, and D comprise the overall balance. The category of official reserve account covers the net amount of transactions by governments. This account covers purchases and sales of reserve assets (such as gold, convertible foreign exchange and special drawing rights) by the central monetary authority.

Now, we can summarise the BOP data

Current account balance + Capital account balance + Reserve balance = Balance of Payments

(X – M) + (CI – CO) + FOREX = BOP

X is exports,

M is imports,

CI is capital inflows,

CO is capital outflows,

FOREX is foreign exchange reserve balance.

BOP Always Balances

A nation’s BOP is a summary statement of all economic transactions between the residents of a country and the rest of the world during a given period of time. A BOP account is divided into current account and capital account. Former is made up of trade in goods (i.e., visible) and trade in services (i.e., invisibles) and unrequited transfers. Latter account is made up of transactions in financial assets. These two accounts comprise BOP

A BOP account is prepared according to the principle of double-entry book keeping. This accounting procedure gives rise to two entries— a debit and a corresponding credit. Any transaction giving rise to a receipt from the rest of the world is a credit item in the BOP account. Any transaction giving rise to a payment to the rest of the world is a debit item.

The left hand side of the BOP account shows the receipts of the country. Such receipts of external purchasing power arise from the commodity export, from the sale of invisible services, from the receipts of gift and grants from foreign govern­ments, international lending institutions and foreign individuals, from the borrowing of money from the foreigners or from repayment of loan by the foreigners.

The right hand side shows the payments made by the country on different items to the foreigners. It shows how the total of external purchasing power is used for acquiring imports of foreign goods and services as well as the purchase of foreign assets. This is the accounting procedure.

However, no country publishes BOP accounts in this format. Rather, by convention, the BOP figures are published in a single column with positive (credit) and negative (debit) signs. Since payments side of the account enumerates all the uses which are made up of the total foreign purchasing power acquired by this country in a given period, and since the receipts of the accounts enumerate all the sources from which foreign purchasing power is acquired by the same country in the same period, the two sides must balance. The entries in the account should, therefore, add up to zero.

In reality, why should they add up to zero? In practice, this is difficult to achieve where receipts equal payments. In reality, total receipts may diverge from total payments because of:

(i) The difficulty of collecting accurate trade information

(ii) The difference in the timing between the two sides of the balance

(iii) A change in the exchange rates, etc.

Because of such measurement problems, resource is made to ‘balancing item’ that intends to eliminate errors in measurement. The purpose of incorporating this item in the BOP account is to adjust the difference between the sums of the credit and the sums of the debit items in the BOP accounts so that they add up to zero by construc­tion. Hence the proposition ‘the BOP always balances’. It is a truism. It only suggests that the two sides of the accounts must always show the same total. It implies only an equality. In this book-keeping sense, BOP always balances.

Thus, by construction, BOP accounts do not matter. In fact, this is not so. The accounts have both economic and political implications. Mathe­matically, receipts equal payments but it need not balance in economic sense. This means that there cannot be disequilibrium in the BOP accounts.

A combined deficit in the current and capital accounts is the most unwanted macroeconomic goal of ,an economy. Again, a deficit in the current account is also undesirable. All these suggest that BOP is out of equilibrium. But can we know whether the BOP is in equilibrium or not? Tests are usually three in number:

(i) Movements in foreign exchange reserves including gold

(ii) Increase in borrowing from abroad

(iii) Movements in foreign exchange rates of the country’s currency in question.

Firstly, if foreign exchange reserves decline, a country’s BOP is considered to be in disequilibrium or in deficit. If foreign exchange reserves are allowed to deplete rapidly it may shatter the confidence of people over the domestic currency. This may ultimately lead to a run on the bank.

Secondly, to cover the deficit a country may borrow from abroad. Thus, such borrowing occurs when imports exceed exports. This involves payment of interest on borrowed funds at a high rate of interest.

Finally, the foreign exchange rate of a country’s currency may tumble when it suffers from BOP disequilibrium. A fall in the exchange rate of a currency is a sign of BOP disequilibrium.

Thus, the above (mechanical) equality between receipts and payments should not be interpreted to mean that a country never suffers from the BOP problems and the international economic transactions of a country are always in equilibrium.

Implications of an Unbalance in the BOP

Although a nation’s BOP always balances in the accounting sense, it need not balance in an economic sense.

An unbalance in the BOP account has the following implications:

In the case of a deficit

(i) Foreign exchange or foreign currency reserves decline,

(ii) Volume of international debt and its servicing mount up, and

(iii) The exchange rate experiences a downward pressure. It is, therefore, necessary to correct these imbalances.

BOP Adjustment Measures:

BOP adjustment measures are grouped into four:

(i) Protectionist measures by imposing customs duties and other restrictions, quotas on imports, etc., aim at restricting the flow of imports,

(ii) Demand management policies—these include restrictionary monetary and fiscal policies to control aggregate demand [C + I + G + (X – M)],

(iii) Supply-side policies—these policies aim at increasing the nation’s output through greater productivity and other efficiency measures, and, finally,

(iv) exchange rate management policies— these policies may involve a fixed exchange rate, or a flexible exchange rate or a managed exchange rate system.

As a method of connecting disequilibrium in a nation’s BOP account, we attach importance here to exchange rate management policy only.

Time series data have a natural temporal ordering. This makes time series analysis distinct from cross-sectional studies, in which there is no natural ordering of the observations (e.g. explaining people’s wages by reference to their respective education levels, where the individuals’ data could be entered in any order). Time series analysis is also distinct from spatial data analysis where the observations typically relate to geographical locations (e.g. accounting for house prices by the location as well as the intrinsic characteristics of the houses). A stochastic model for a time series will generally reflect the fact that observations close together in time will be more closely related than observations further apart. In addition, time series models will often make use of the natural one-way ordering of time so that values for a given period will be expressed as deriving in some way from past values, rather than from future values.

Additive Model:

1. Data is represented in terms of addition of seasonality, trend, cyclical and residual components
2. Used where change is measured in absolute quantity
3. Data is modeled as-is

Additive model is used when the variance of the time series doesn’t change over different values of the time series.

On the other hand, if the variance is higher when the time series is higher then it often means we should use a multiplicative models.

Returni=pricei−pricei−1=trendi−trendi−1+seasonali−seasonali−1+errori−errori−1returni=pricei−pricei−1=trendi−trendi−1+seasonali−seasonali−1+errori−errori−1

If error’s increments have normal iid distributions then returni has also a normal distribution with constant variance over time.

Multiplicative model:

1. Data is represented in terms of multiplication of seasonality, trend, cyclical and residual components
2. Used where change is measured in percent (%) change
3. Data is modeled just as additive but after taking logarithm (with base as natural or base 10)

If log of the time series is an additive model then the original time series is a multiplicative model, because:

log(pricei)=log(trendi⋅seasonali⋅errori)=log(trendi)+log(seasonali)+log(errori)log(pricei)=log(trendi⋅seasonali⋅errori)=log(trendi)+log(seasonali)+log(errori)

So the return of logarithms:

log(pricei)−log(pricei−1)=log(pricei/pricei−1)

A time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Time series are very frequently plotted via line charts. Time series are used in statistics, signal processing, pattern recognition, econometrics, mathematical finance, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, electroencephalography, control engineering, astronomy, communications engineering, and largely in any domain of applied science and engineering which involves temporal measurements.

Time series analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting is the use of a model to predict future values based on previously observed values. While regression analysis is often employed in such a way as to test theories that the current values of one or more independent time series affect the current value of another time series, this type of analysis of time series is not called “time series analysis”, which focuses on comparing values of a single time series or multiple dependent time series at different points in time. Interrupted time series analysis is the analysis of interventions on a single time series.

Time series data have a natural temporal ordering. This makes time series analysis distinct from cross-sectional studies, in which there is no natural ordering of the observations (e.g. explaining people’s wages by reference to their respective education levels, where the individuals’ data could be entered in any order). Time series analysis is also distinct from spatial data analysis where the observations typically relate to geographical locations (e.g. accounting for house prices by the location as well as the intrinsic characteristics of the houses). A stochastic model for a time series will generally reflect the fact that observations close together in time will be more closely related than observations further apart. In addition, time series models will often make use of the natural one-way ordering of time so that values for a given period will be expressed as deriving in some way from past values, rather than from future values.

Analysis of time series has a lot of utilities for the various fields of human interest viz: business, economics, sociology, politics, administration etc. It is, also, found very useful in the fields of physical, and natural sciences. Some such points of its utilities are briefly here as under:

(i) It helps in studying the behaviours of a variable. 

In a time series, the past data relating to a variable over a period of time are arranged in an orderly manner. By simple observation of such a series, one can understand the nature of change that takes place with the variable in course of time. Further, by the technique of isolation applied to the series, one can tendency of the variable, seasonal change, cyclical change, and irregular or accidental change with the variable.

(ii) It helps in forecasting

The analysis of a time series reveals the mode of changes in the value of a variable in course of the times. This helps us in forecasting the future value of a variable after a certain period. Thus, with the help of such a series we can make our future plan relating to certain matters like production, sales, profits, etc. This is how in a planned economy all plans for the future development are the analysis of time series of the relevant data.

(iii) It helps in evaluating the performances.

Evaluation of the actual performances with reference to the predetermined targets is highly necessary to judge the efficiency, or otherwise in the progress of a certain work. For example, the achievements or out five-Year Plans are evaluated by determining the annual rate of growth in the gross national product. Similarly, our policy of controlling the inflation, and price rises is evaluated with the help of various price indices. All these are facilitated by analysis of the time series relating to the relevant variables.

(iv) It helps in making comparative study

Comparative study of data relating to two, of more periods, regions, or industries reveals a lot of valuable information which guide a management in taking the proper course of action for the future. A time series, per se, provides a scientific basis for making the comparision between the two, or more related set of data as in such series, the data are chronologically, and the effects of its various components are gradually isolated and unraveled.

Limitations

Forecasting

The central logical problem in forecasting is that the “cases” (that is, the time periods) which you use to make predictions never form a random sample from the same population as the time periods about which you make the predictions. This point is vividly illustrated by the 509-point plunge in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average on October 19, 1987. Even in percentage terms, no one-day drop in the previous 40 years (comprising some 8000 trading days) had ever been more than a fraction of that size. Thus this drop (which occurred in the absence of any dramatic news developments) could never have been forecast just from a time-series study of stock prices over the previous 40 years, no matter how detailed. It is now widely believed that a major cause of the drop was the newly-introduced widespread use of personal computers programmed to sell stock options whenever stock prices dropped slightly; this created a snowball effect. Thus the stock market’s history of the previous 40 or even 100 years was irrelevant to predicting its volatility in October 1987, because nearly all that history had occurred in the absence of this new factor.

The same general point arises in nearly all forecasting work. If you have records of monthly sales in a department store for the last 10 years, and are asked to project those sales into the future, those statistics will not reflect the fact that as you work, a new discount store is opening a few blocks away, or the city has just changed the street in front of your store to a one-way street, making it harder for customers to reach your store.

A second problem that arises in time-series forecasting is that you rarely know the true shape of the distribution with which you are working. Workers in other areas often assume normal distributions while knowing that assumption is not fully accurate. However, such a simplification may produce more serious errors in time-series work than in other areas. In much statistical work the problem of non-normal distributions is greatly ameliorated by the fact that you are really concerned with sample means, and the Central Limit Theorem asserts that means are often approximately normally distributed even when the underlying scores are not. However, in time-series forecasting you are often concerned with just one time period–the period for which you want to forecast. Thus the Central Limit Theorem has no chance to operate, and the assumption of normality may lead to seriously wrong conclusions. Even if your forecast is just one of a series of forecasts which you update after each new time period, the forecasts are made one at a time, so that a single seriously wrong forecast may bankrupt your company or lead to your dismissal, and nobody will ever learn that your next 50 forecasts would have been within the range predicted by a normal distribution. Some stock market speculators, who had previously been quite successful, were bankrupted or driven into retirement by the stock market plunge of 1987. That’s very different from the situation in which a company hires, all at once, 50 workers identified by a competence test. If one out of the 50 is a spectacular failure, the company (and you the forecaster) will survive because at the very same time the other 49 were turning out well.

Analyzing the Impact of Single Events

When you try to assess the impact of a single event, the major problem is that there are always many events occurring at any one time. Suppose you are trying to assess the effect of a new toll on bridge A on traffic across bridge B, but a new store opened near bridge B the same day the toll was introduced, permanently increasing traffic on bridge B. When critics remind us that “correlation does not imply causation”, they are mostly talking about the possible effects of overlooked variables. But in these time-series examples we are talking about the possible effects of overlooked events. It’s difficult to say which type of problem is more intractable, but they do seem to be two different types of problem.

Analyzing Causal Patterns

When scientists use time series to study the effects of one variable on another, they usually have at least two time series–one for the independent variable and one for the dependent–as in our earlier example on the relation between unemployment and crime. The problems in analyzing causal patterns are difficult but not impossible.

One problem with such research is that because the observations within each series are not independent of each other, the probability of finding a high correlation between the two series may be higher than is suggested by standard formulas. Later we describe a solution to this problem.

A second problem is that it is rarely reasonable to assume that the time sequence of the causal patterns matches the time periods in the study. Thus if increased unemployment typically produced an increase in crime exactly six months later but not five months later, then it would be fairly easy to discover that relationship by correlating monthly changes in unemployment with monthly changes in crime six months later. However, it is much more plausible to assume that increased unemployment in January produces a slight rise in crime during February, a further slight rise during March, and so on for several months. Such effects can be much more difficult to detect, though later we do suggest a solution to this problem.

A third problem in analyzing causal patterns is the familiar problem that correlation does not imply causation. As in ordinary regression problems, it helps to be able to control statistically for covariates. Later we describe one way to do this in time-series problems.