HR Demand forecasting, Factors

Demand forecasting is a quantitative aspect of human resource planning. It is the process of estimating the future requirement of human resources of all kinds and types of the organisation.

Human resource (HR) demand forecasting is the process of estimating the future quantity and quality of people required. The basis of the forecast must be the annual budget and long-term corporate plan, translated into activity levels for each function and department. In a manufacturing company, the sales budget would be translated into a production plan giving the number and type of products to be produced in each period. From this information, the number of hours to be worked by each skilled category to make the quota for each period, would be computed. Once the hours are available, determining the quality and quantity of personnel will be the logical step.

HR Demand forecasting must consider several factors-both external as well as internal. Among the external factors are competition (foreign and domestic), economic climate, laws and regulatory bodies, changes in technology, and social factors. Internal factors include budget constraints, production levels, new products and services, organisational structure, and employee separations. Demand forecasting is common among organisations, though they may not do personnel-supply forecasting.

Factors:

(1) Employment trend in the organisation for at least last five years to be traced

to determine the future needs.

(2) Organisation has to find out the replacement needs due to retirement, death, resignation, termination etc.

(3) Improvement in productivity is yet another factor. To improve productivity organisation needs better employees with skills and potential. Productivity leads to growth but depends on the demands for the product of the enterprise in the market. Higher demand may lead to more employment of skilled personnel’s.

(4) Expansion of the organisation leads to hiring of more skilled persons. The base of human resource forecast is the annual budget. Manufacturing plan depends upon the budget. Expansion in production leads to more hiring of skills and technology.